12 Ways A Stronger US Dollar Affects The Global Economy

During the last few years, the US dollar has grown in strength. Uncertainty about the world economy has led many investors and others to turn to the US dollar. Because the greenback is backed by what many consider the most stable tax base in the world, it is considered very safe. On top of that, the US economy is still the largest, and the greenback is still the de facto global currency. It’s hard to argue against the viability of the US dollar, and with all of the uncertainty right now, it’s not surprising that many turn to the greenback for a reliable investment.

However, a stronger US dollar has very real impacts. For decades, the dollar was weakening relative to other currencies. But now, the situation has changed.Even  if the change ends up being only temporary. here  are some of the ways a stronger US dollar affects the economies of the United States and Europe:

1. US Domestic Industries Struggle with Input Costs

For US companies with foreign workers in developing nations, a stronger dollar means input costs related to labor are smaller, since a stronger dollar can buy more of a weaker currency. That’s not the story in the United States, though. With a stronger dollar, it means that US domestic labor, paid for in US dollars, is more expensive. There isn’t a lot of flexibility for these types of companies to compete on price without seeing thinner margins. As ISM falls, there is potential for GDP growth to slow as well.

2. US Exporters Likely to See Losses

Earnings season once again reminds us that US companies exporting to other countries are likely to see problems related to a stronger US dollar. With the dollar stronger relative to other currencies, it means that exporters have to lower their prices in order to prevent buyers in other countries from turning to less-expensive alternatives. This impact on US company earnings can mean a lower stock market, as well as other economic consequences.

3. European Companies Can’t Raise Prices

The ECB has been trying to keep the eurozone economy on life support since the sovereign debt crisis. Recently, the ECB instigated a quantitative easing program to help stimulate the economy with the help of inflation. However, a stronger US dollar means that it’s going to be harder for European countries to raise prices, even with the help of a policy that encourages inflation. This means a difficult time for European companies and earnings, even if eurozone countries gain a little help in the realm of export.

4. Some European Exports Might be More Attractive

With a stronger dollar on tap, some European exports might be seen as more attractive. However, this may not happen to a significant  extent unless EUR/USD actually reaches parity – or the dollar strengthens to the point that it is worth more than the euro. If the dollar’s rally continues, the eurozone might get a little export help as more buyers turn to more moderately priced goods from a weaker currency. That could help the eurozone economy recover a bit, and be useful in the event that European companies can’t raise domestic prices.

5. Germany Likely to Benefit From Exports

The German economy is likely to be the biggest winner from increased exports. German exports will be cheaper and more attractive, thanks to a strong dollar. While this is likely to help the eurozone economy overall, the fact of the matter is that it is also likely to continue to widen the gap between German economy and the eurozone economies on the periphery.

6. US Consumers See Cheaper Fossil Fuels

During the last few years, as oil prices have risen and fuel has become more expensive in the United States, strides toward an economy less dependent on fossil fuels have been made. However, now that the greenback is gaining strength, oil, which is denominated in dollars, is lower in cost. With cheaper fossil fuels comes a shift away from the development of the sustainable energy economy, and that could impact the overall economy down the road if oil prices rise again.

7. Oil Doesn’t Fall as Much for Europeans

While oil prices are lower in Europe, because of a stronger dollar, the difference would not be so  great. The currency difference means that the drop wouldn’t allow European consumers to keep as much money in their pockets (for spending on other things) as US consumers have.

8. European Tourism Industry Grows

Eurozone countries are seeing increases in their economies thanks to tourism from the United States. US tourists are visiting eurozone countries because it’s cheaper for them to do so, with the value of the euro down relative to the value of the dollar. European economies might see a little extra boost in tourism, as long as the dollar remains strong.

9. Fewer Tourists to the United States

Of course, the flip side to a growth in tourism in eurozone economies is a decrease in tourism to the United States. A stronger dollar means it’s more expensive to visit the United States, something that might pinch the American hospitality industry.

10. Cuts to US Imports Could Keep Inflation in Check

The Federal Reserve has a target inflation rate of 2.0%.. Right now, the inflation rate is nowhere near that level, and it’s not likely to do so anytime soon., because the cut to import prices (a stronger dollar means that imports to the United States appear cheaper to consumers and others) will keep inflation in check. While the Fed has said it will look at a range of factors – including unemployment – before raising rates, there really isn’t much reason to raise rates as long as other factors keep inflation in check.

11. United Kingdom Acts as an Economic Bridge

Even countries not involved in the eurozone are feeling the impact of a strong US dollar. The United Kingdom has been a sort of “go between” since the dollar has strengthened. The pound has weakened relative to the dollar, but remains strong relative to the euro. Britons can add to the rise in tourism seen in the eurozone, and continue to act as an economic bridge between the United States and the eurozone.

12. Russia Sees Mixed Results

Another European country impacted by the strong US dollar, but that isn’t using the euro, is Russia. Russia sees mixed results from a strong dollar. On one hand, a strong dollar means better export numbers for the relatively weak ruble. On the other hand, though, the strong dollar is driving down oil prices, and that hits Russia in one of its biggest economic supports.

This article was written by Miranda Marquit, and provided by Andriy Moraru- editor at EarnForex. Check out EarnForex if you want to gain a better understanding of how currencies and economic indicators work together, and how you can benefit from global currency moves.

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Does Government Debt Actually Harm Future Generations

Tom Goldsworthy

The USAs national debt, visualised if it were in stacks of cash.

Does government debt harm future generations, as it is often argued? Government borrowing is argued to be immoral because of the supposed burden it places on our children, and our childrens children, and so on.  Higher debt-financed consumption today makes future generations poorer tomorrow, so the argument goes.  An article in the Telegraph last year entitled, Its time to come clean about our national debt used this very same argument.  Liam Halligan, the articles author, said:

"Why should we borrow so much, foisting our profligacy on our children and grandchildren...A spiralling national debt isnt only bad economics, but is also morally repugnant."

Unfortunately, many would point out that the economic logic behind the above argument does not completely hold.  In theory, government debt need not necessarily leave future generations any worse of at all overall - net.  This is because, for every pound the government borrows, there must be someone on the other side lending that money.  So, assuming all government debt is held only domestically, the burden on future generations will be zero.  While some parts of the population will pay higher taxes to service the debt, another section will receive interest payments for lending the government that money in the first place (and these two groups are likely to overlap).  Of course, there are many other reasons that excessive government debt may be undesirable in terms of its effects on future generations, not least the distributional consequences, but in terms of the question of a net burden on society, the case does not hold.

Having said that, around 1/3 of government debt is in foreign hands, and so there will be a net burden on society in the future to an extent.  The assumption that all government debt is held domestically is not completely accurate in Britain.  

Although, even then the argument over whether government debt burdens future generations is not settled.  It depends on how the government spends the money it borrows.  If it is being used to finance short-term consumption, then, yes, the fact that around 1/3 of our debt is foreign owned will mean that we are enriching ourselves at the expense of future generations. But, if the money is used to finance vital, beneficial long-term investments in, say, infrastructure, then future tax payers will feel the benefits of that spending, as well as the costs, and so not necessarily be worse off overall.

So, while in theory government debt neednt leave a net burden on future generations, in reality it probably will to an extent.  However, as shown, when government debt is domestically held (as 2/3 of British government debt is), hyperbolically stating that government borrowing is morally repugnant, irresponsible and so on, is clearly a huge exaggeration.  As the economic logic shows, the majority of British government debt will, in fact, not leave future generations worse off.

Tom Goldsworthy is the founder and editor of The Economic View, a blog that aims to provide the economic view on current events, analysing topical issues with the economists toolkit. 

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Government Regulation Gone Wrong

A 2013 report showed France to be quite the bureaucracy- it claimed that over 400,000 directives were being enforced, ranging from how far a postbox is allowed to stick out of a wall to how much boiled egg a kindergartener can eat at lunch time. 

The examples seem petty, but more serious regulation is coming to the cost of small town and village budgets- for example a law enforced making all pavements at least wide enough to allow two wheelchairs to pass. 

Of course, this is not a bad idea in itself, however when Paris enforced this on every French town or village, it becomes a problem- in many cases this blanket ruling is uneconomical, perhaps if there are few disabled people in the area or few people altogether.

According to Michel Therond, mayor of 25 years of the small town Albaret-Sainte-Marie, he gets letters with new regulations or stipulation from every time he opens his mailbox.

In many cases regulation is not as disputed- regulations on the minimum drinking age, or that businesses must hire employees regardless of any disability are largely accepted by society. However this excessive bureaucracy can have damaging effects on a country’s economy- it can mean managerial-type people are employed with high wages to not do very much, it can put pressure not necessarily on the cities, but smaller town or village councils- and it does not always work.

In Mexico City, at the time of a great pollution problem (that still exists in part today) a regulation was enforced that aimed to reduce car use and thus emissions and so on. So the government created Hoy No Circula (literally meaning Today it (your car) does not circulate)- a legislation that stated that cars with only cars with certain numberplates could be on the road on certain days- to bring this example to england you could say that on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, only cars whose number plates begin with letters A-M can drive, and on the other days, cars N-Z. 

In Mexico City however, this plan backfired- it’s a typical example of what is known as the Cobra Effect. Most people needed their cars everyday- to go to work, do shopping, go to places where cars were the only reasonable, comfortable way to get there. So people didn’t start walking or taking the bus on days when their car could not be on the road- instead people just bought a second car, with a plate that would allow them to go on the days they previously couldn’t- granting them car usage for the whole week. It was quite an ingenious way of avoiding the regulation.

However we must remember that most people of Mexico City were not wealthy- so the second cars these people did buy were more often than not old beat-ups- whose emissions were even worse than their first cars. The result? Not necessarily fewer cars on the road, but instead older, more polluting cars on the road. This regulation did not last long, unsurprisingly.

This was the Cobra Effect- the origins of which I’ll briefly explain in another article.

So bureaucracy can be damaging, that’s for sure. Regulation may be necessary in areas, but like all things, in careful measure.

SOURCES:

French bureaucracy effect on small towns 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/30/government-rules-hinder-france-growth

Hoy no Circula regulation http://geo-mexico.com/?p=2343

Driving Restrictions and Air Quality in Mexico City www.rff.org/Publications/WPC/Pages/08_15_08_Driving%20Restrictions%20and%20Air%20Quality%20in%20Mexico%20City.aspx Lucas W. Davis

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On digital piracy Part One

(Photo credit to Schwadron)

In the past, pirates were known as the squashbuckling, one-legged, eyepatch-wearing Captain Jack Sparrow-type of sailors who would brave the seas in search of precious treasures (or booty, as it was known). They were the outlaws of the sea, the mavericks who were both celebrated and deplored by many in their time.

However now, the digital age has brought along its own (rather less exciting) type of pirate.
The treasure for todays pirates is no longer a chest of fine precious jewels, but instead perhaps an entire series of Game of Thrones, Ed Sheerans latest album or the Football Manager video game- all of which are accessible easily via torrents, files that direct your computer to download larger ones, be it an MP3 album, a film, or anything.

Whereas to purchase Football Manager 14 from a shop, Id have to locate the item and travel to my nearest game stores (leaving the house, oh!) to lump out 35 of my pounds, via torrenting I can get this for free, completely. All without leaving my house, right on my computer, not a pound lost from my pocket.

Thats largely where the appeal of digital piracy lies- you can get something of value that you desire for free. And in the day of almost all media (even books) now being on digital platforms, you can get quite a lot.

To many, this practice raises serious moral issues, and perhaps rightly so. Is there really a difference between torrenting Fast and Furious 6 and simply walking into my nearest HMV, grabbing a copy of it from the shelves and walking out without paying? On the surface, there is little difference- in both cases you have obtained something of value that was not given willingly to you for free by the creator(s).

However, many people fail to take into account such a link, the reason why digital piracy is far more widespread than shoplifting- and its unsurprising why many of us do not see digital piracy, perhaps irrationally, as a direct equivalent to shop theft.

The internet has hugely affected our behaviour- most notably due to the fact that it provides a proxy between communicators, it provides an environment in which relationships are usually more detached, separated by a screen.
This separation is clear in how confidence is gained by many internet users who, in the real world, have very little- cyberbullies, trollsters and whatnot are largely of this type.

The lack of interpersonal communication during the process of torrenting makes it a much more appealing prospect than outright shop theft; when on the internet alone, you feel there is no one watching you (something in fact untrue), so theres no one that provides a reaction to your torrenting, theres no one to catch or stop you. This is an environment that is far more conducive to theft.

This nature is shown in the statistics- as of 2011, 42% of software running in the world was pirated, 95% of music downloaded online was pirated, and two-thirds of all torrents were illegal. Three years on, illegal downloads have continued to grow in popularity. Its clear- the world is full of digital piracy.

At the end of the day, digital piracy is the same as theft from a store. We have all been guilty of it, but perhaps we need to change our attitudes towards it; we wouldnt steal directly from a shop, so why should we steal online?

But actually, on the other hand, does digital piracy actually matter? Does your downloading of a piece of media really have any negative impact on the multi-millionaire producers of the things we download?

Well be exploring that in the next article. Stick around.


SOURCE(S):

Online Piracy in Numbers – Facts and Statistics [Infographic] www.go-gulf.com/blog/online-piracy/ (2011)

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